graduate student
Ryazan, Orel, Russian Federation
UDC 332.02
Introduction. Under the sanctions induced blockade of traditional export markets, the forest industry of the Russian Federation has faced a systemic surplus of production capacity and an excess of low grade raw materials. The reorientation of supply chains towards Asian markets does not ensure the full scale utilisation of sawmill waste due to the unprofitability of logistics, resulting in an increase in unused wood waste to 6.72 million tonnes by 2024. Objective. To provide a scientific justification for an organisational and economic mechanism for the development of the pulp and paper industry (hereinafter referred to as PPI) as a key driver for absorbing raw material surplus, decarbonising technological supply chains, and ensuring the economic security of the forest industry. Methods. The study employs statistical data from the Federal State Statistics Service and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS) for the period 2017–2025. The methodology comprises comparative and balance sheet analysis, alongside technical and economic modelling of material flows. The effect of interest rates on PPI output was assessed via structural econometric SVAR modelling. Technological optimisation was explored through digital twin concepts for production technological chains and intelligent neural network control. Results. The volumes of unused raw materials are quantitatively characterised, and their utilisation value is confirmed. A crisis of overproduction in the containerboard market is identified for 2025, driven by excessive capacity growth, as well as a raw material shift in corrugated production towards secondary fibre (up to 60 %). On the example of JSC “SLPK”, the effectiveness of decarbonisation through the combustion of bark and wood waste is demonstrated (emission reduction of 185.8 thousand tonnes of CO2 equivalent). A model is proposed for regulating financial, raw material, and digital flows, aimed at subsidising interest rates on investment loans and removing regulatory barriers to extended producer responsibility with respect to criteria for the utilisation of secondary resources, thereby ensuring the stabilisation of the Russian forest industry.
forest industry, pulp and paper industry, sawmill waste, monetary policy, extended producer responsibility, decarbonisation, digital twins, neural network regulation
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