Russian Federation
from 01.01.2019 until now
Sankt-Peterburg, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Introduction. Statistical analysis of economic crime is used to assess the effectiveness of countermeasures, however, due to the high latency, reporting distortions and inertia of such offences, interpretation of the results requires particular methodological caution. Methods. The methods of correlation and regression analysis, component decomposition of time series, and trend approximation using polynomial function are used in this work. Special attention is paid to the problem of false correlation and time lags in modelling. Results. It has been established that a significant part of seasonal fluctuations in the data on detected crimes of economic orientation is caused by the organisational and reporting logic of law enforcement agencies rather than real criminal activity. The division of crimes by the degree of latency as a condition for correct statistical analysis is proposed. The conclusion is made about the impossibility of direct extrapolation of official statistics to assess the dynamics and structure of threats to economic security without taking into account the peculiarities of the formation of the array of observations.
economic crime, latency, statistical analysis, time series, seasonality, economic security
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